ON THE WAY TO THE REAL IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Abstract

Earthquake forecasting is one of the most pressing problems of humanity, which increases with time. In the twentieth century there have been attempts to solve the problem without the use of any model of forming and implementation of earthquake sources but elementary using inverse problem methods (pattern recognition) with the measurements and analysis of heterogeneous anomalies in the various geophysical and other fields. However, these attempts have not been successful due to the fact that these problems were proved to be incorrect. Because of this, it became necessary to find new ways to solve this problem. The most realistic solution was proposed by the creator of the first scientifically based program of earthquake forecasting academician of Academy of Sciences of the USSR Grigory Gamburtsev but premature tragic death did not allow him to realize it. Based on the considerations of G.A. Gamburtsev the deformation model of crustal earthquake source formation was developed. It follows from this model that the implementation of accurate forecasts of place and maximum source power of coming earthquake is quite real. The realization of these forecasts is possible with the help of geodetic systems, which allow to determine the displacement and deformation of the crustal blocks on the bases of tens of kilometers or more.Unfortunately, even at the present time, there is a perception that geodesy is only a craft. Sure enough this is misleading: modern tectonics is explored by competently set geodetic investigations. It is sufficient to mention the plate tectonics: current velocities and directions of displacement are obtained using methods of dynamic geodesy.The first geodesic forecast system was organized on the seismogenic Imperial fault in Mexico. The different aspects of creation Vladikavkaz forecast geodynamic testing range in North Ossetia are considered.