Variability of agro-climatic conditions of the Chechen Republic and their impact on grain yields
Abstract
Relevance. Climate change is accompanied by an increase in annual temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns and the length of the growing season, and an increase in the number of extreme weather events. All these changes already require the introduction of adaptation measures to mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure food security. Aim – assessment of the dynamics of modern agro-climatic conditions in the Chechen Republic and their impact on grain yields. Materials and methods. Using mathematical statistics, the indicators of heat and moisture supply of the territory for the period from 1961 to 2025 were analyzed based on the materials of the Grozny and Gudermes weather stations. The meteorological parameters were averaged over five years, and the averaging results were compared with the climatic norm. Walter-Gossen climatograms were constructed to assess the weather conditions affecting the growth and development of grain crops. Results. In the period from 1961 to 2025, the improvement of heat and moisture supply to the territory was noted in the steppe landscapes of the Chechen Republic. The annual temperature has increased by 1 °C. Accordingly, the amount of active temperatures has increased, and the period of active vegetation has increased. Precipitation increased by 9-12 %. Despite periods of increasing and decreasing GTC, in general, this indicator remained within the normal range. Precipitation in April (during the phase of emergence into the tube and earing of grain) is higher than normal or slightly below normal, i.e. sufficient. The analysis of climatograms revealed that humid conditions prevail at the beginning of the active vegetation period, arid conditions occur in July-September, during the ripening and harvesting of grain. A direct statistically significant relationship between yield and average annual temperature has been revealed. During the regression analysis, it was revealed that an increase in temperatures above 15 °C negatively affects the yield of grain crops. Conclusions. The improvement of heat and moisture supply to the territory of the Chechen Republic, namely, an increase in annual air temperature, as well as temperature and precipitation at the beginning of the active growing season (April–June), has a beneficial effect on the growth and development of grain crops. An increase in temperatures above 15 °C is critical for the yield of grain crops.
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