Prediction of geodynamically active zones of the Ciscaucasia based on the analysis of time series of microseismic observations
Abstract
Relevance. The Ciscaucasia is characterized by high tectonic activity and a complex geodynamic regime, which necessitates the development of advanced approaches for identifying and forecasting geodynamically active zones using modern geophysical observations. Aim. To determine the patterns of microseismic field variations and assess the applicability of microseismic time series analysis for forecasting geodynamically active zones in the Ciscaucasia. Methods. Continuous microseismic observation time series recorded in the frequency range of 0.1–40 Hz were analyzed. Signal preprocessing, spectral analysis, correlation analysis, and spatial interpretation were performed, followed by comparison of microseismic monitoring results with regional tectonic structures. Results. Geodynamically active areas were found to be characterized by increased amplitudes of microseismic oscillations, stable spectral peaks within the 2–5 Hz frequency range, and elevated correlation coefficients between observation sites. Spatially persistent anomalies of microseismic activity coinciding with major fault systems were identified. Variations in microseismic field parameters were shown to precede local deformation processes and weak seismic events. The obtained results demonstrate the potential of microseismic monitoring for assessing the present geodynamic state of the region and forecasting geodynamically active zones.
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