Study of the activity dynamics of the Otman-Bozdag mud volcano
Abstract
Relevance. Otman-Bozdag is one of the most active and potentially hazardous mud volcanoes of the Absheron Peninsula, capable of producing large-scale emissions of breccia, gases, and thermal energy. Until recently, the absence of continuous seismic monitoring limited detailed analysis of subsurface processes and eruption dynamics. The installation of a modern digital seismic network in 2022 within an international project enabled real-time monitoring of mud volcanic activity. Aim. This study aims to investigate the seismic and geodynamic features of the Otman-Bozdag mud volcano, identify stages of its activity, and assess its connection with deep tectonic structures of the South Caspian Basin. Methods. The study is based on historical eruption data and continuous seismic records from 35 Kinemetrics and 12 Nanometrics stations. Seismic monitoring was conducted using SeisComP5 to detect local seismicity, identify P- and S- waves, estimate source depth, timing, and energy parameters. Stress regime variations were analyzed using the Lode–Nadai coefficient, complemented by satellite-based mapping of breccia redistribution. Results. The results indicate that the Otman-Bozdag mud volcano operates as a multi-level fluid discharge system controlled by deep-seated faults of the South Caspian Basin. Variations in the Lode–Nadai coefficient reflect transitions from stable to unstable stress states, coinciding with periods of volcanic activation. Seismic data allow precise determination of eruption onset, source depth, duration of individual stages, and total released energy.
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