ABOUT THE TIME OF POSSIBLE MANIFESTATION OF THE NEXT CATASTROPHIC PULSATION OF THE KOLKA GLACIER

Abstract

The most vivid and significant in its consequences events in the history of the Kolka glacier are its paroxysmal catastrophic outburstsof 2002, 1902, and 1752 and not having an exact dating repeatedly occurred earlier. It is quite clear that such catastrophic pulsations of the Kolka glacier will occur in the future. In order to minimize the negative consequences of these pulsations, it is necessary first of all to forecast the time of their possible manifestation and to observe their precursors. As a result of the sudden gas-dynamic outburststhat occurred on September 20, 2002, the Kolka glacier was completely destroyed. Currently, the glacier is being restored. However, before acquiring the properties of an impermeable (gas-resistant) barrier (which depends on the rate of conversion of glacial firn accumulating into the ice bed), the manifestation of its next catastrophic pulsation is impossible. The time required for such a transformation is several decades (from the moment of firn accumulation in the composition of the glacial sequence).