Geodynamics, geothermics and seismicity of the Caucasus-Anatolian-Arabian region and the earthquake in the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) on 23 April 2025
Abstract
Relevance. On 23 April 2025, an earthquake with a magnitude of M 6.2 occurred in the Sea of Marmara. Each new strong earthquake provides additional information about seismicity in the region and makes it possible to refine the forecast and prevention of subsequent possible destructive events. The propagation of strong earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault from east to west, which has a certain pattern, makes the earthquake in the Sea of Marmara an important link in this chain and provides new material for the analysis of seismicity in the vicinity of Istanbul. Aim of the study is to analyze and identify the relationship and interrelationship of the 2025 Marmara earthquake with the strong earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault of 1939-1999, as well as with the earlier historical earthquakes of 1509 and 1766 in the Istanbul region. Research methods are the construction of geodynamic and geothermal models of the deep structure of regions of natural disasters and catastrophes and a comparative analysis of available geological and geophysical data of the region of active continental margins and seismogenic faults. Results. There are two mechanisms for achieving the ultimate strength of rocks at depth to form an earthquake source. These are the activation of seismogenic faults due to the horizontal movement of lithosphere plates and the vertical rise of matter in the form of mantle diapirs due to gravitational instability. Strong earthquakes propagating along the North Anatolian Fault from east to west have passed the vicinity of Istanbul and are moving further west towards the Aegean Sea, as may be witnessed by the earthquake of 2025 west of Istanbul, which may indicate a decrease in the seismic risk for Istanbul in the near future in terms of horizontal movements along the fault. At the same time, the hazard from a possible strong earthquake of the type of historical earthquakes with a period of 250 years (1509, 1766) remains high. Such an earthquake in the vicinity of Istanbul may occur within the next few years.
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