Seismic hazard assessment of Kazakhstan territory on the example of Zhambyl region
Abstract
Relevance. With the transition of state construction standards of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the basic principles of Eurocode 8, the development of seismic zoning maps that meet these principles was also required. The first such maps included in the construction rules of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2017 and 2021 were Maps of General Seismic Zoning of the territory of Kazakhstan and Seismic Microzonation Maps for the city of Almaty. When developing them, a probabilistic approach was used to assess seismic hazard and its representation not only in macroseismic intensities, but also in quantitative parameters – peak ground accelerations. The next stage was a project for detailed seismic zoning of regions and microzonation of cities, implemented in stages since 2021. It significantly updates all elements of the probabilistic hazard assessment. The paper presents a modern approach to seismic hazard assessment and seismic zoning in Kazakhstan using the example of the Zhambyl Region. Aim. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and detailed seismic zoning of the Zhambyl Region of Kazakhstan in quantitative parameters. Methods. Modern methods and analysis tools were used, as well as the most complete and up-to-date information available for the territory under consideration. The research was based on the geological, geophysical and seismotectonic basis for assessing seismic hazard, created in the project, and included a study of the parameters of the seismic regime and seismotectonic deformation of the Earth’s crust, the creation of a bank of ground motion parameters, the definition of a system of ground motion models, modeling and parameterization of areal and linear seismic sources, probabilistic analysis of seismic hazard, and the development of detailed seismic zoning maps. Results. The article discusses the results for estimates in quantitative parameters – peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations. A set of detailed seismic zoning maps for the territory of the Zhambyl Region of Kazakhstan in peak ground accelerations for two return periods of 475 and 2475 years (probabilities of exceedance of 10% and 2% in 50 years) has been developed. The created maps will serve as the basis for updating construction regulations, will contribute to integration into the European and world economies, create conditions for investment projects and insurance, and increase the country’s seismic safety.
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