Long-term changes in the precipitation regime as a factor of the hydrological hazards’ formation in the mountainous zone of the Dagestan Republic
Abstract
The relevance is defined by the need to identify long-term trends in regional precipitation changes as a factor in the formation of hazardous natural processes. The aim of this study is to identify statistically significant changes in the current regime of precipitation in the Dagestan Republic mountainous zone, which can affect the activity of hazardous hydrometeorological and hydrological phenomena cаusing the economic and social damage. Methods. Mathematical and statistical modeling of historical daily precipitation changes were conducted. The presence of statistically significant long-term trends was assessed using a set of parametric and nonparametric methods. Results. It was found that in the high-altitude zone, the overwhelming number of statistically significant trends are negative. Significant positive trends were revealed in March and July. In the mid-mountain zone, an increase in monthly precipitation was revealed from January to March, and in July. The number of days with intense precipitation is decreasing in April–June, Augus, September, November and December. The number of days with intense precipitation in February, March and July is increasing. The dynamics of the number of hydrometeorological (rains, showers, hail) and hydrological (mudslides) phenomena that led to material and social damage has a statistically insignificant negative trend. Conclusions. Comparing the dynamics and annual distribution of hazardous phenomena with the changes in the precipitation regime, it can be expected that the rain component of the mudflows formation in March and July will grow. The decrease in precipitation from April to June, as well as in August-September, occurs due to a decrease in the number of days with highintensity precipitation, which reduces the contribution of the hydrometeorological component to the formation of mudflows in these months.
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