ABOUT THE ROLE OF SEISMOTTECONICS IN THE KOLKA CATASTROPHE OF 2002

Abstract

The catastrophic events on the Kolka Glacier and Genaldon Gorge on September 20, 2002 were not seismic catastrophe, but had an entirely different, gas dynamic, geodynamic character in their epicenter. Of course, the earthquakes in the Caucasus, especially the strongest ones, first of all Spitak (1988), Racha (Racha-Javskoe) (1991) and Barisakho (1992), by a powerful shaking impact on the lithosphere environment of the Kazbek neovoulcanic region facilitated the acceleration of the deep processes of preparation for the Kolka disaster, but in those years the geodynamic system of the Kolka glacier was not yet ready for the gas-dynamic outburst of the glacier. And in September 2002, when the degree of readiness of this system to gas-dynamic outburst was sufficient, strong earthquakes capable to initiate the glacier outburst by shaking the geodynamic system of the Kolka glacier, were not in the Caucasus. Given the very gently sloping valley of the Kolka glacier and the very specific features of the preparation, occurrence and completion of the Kolka disaster of 2002, the seismic impact on the glacier could not have been the direct cause of this catastrophe: even a very strong seismic impact on the Kolka glacier itself could not stipulate (and, accordingly, does not allow to explain) the known features of the Kolka disaster. Nevertheless, indirectly, primarily by influencing the speed and intensity of the volcanic processes of generation and upward migration of high-pressure deep natural gases in the lithosphere substrate of the Kolka Glacier, seismic processes, even if not very strong, could contribute to the preparation, launch and occurrence of gas-dynamic outburst of the Kolka glacier in 2002